Take the site to the grid application
Ask the next question in the same project. Noda builds the financial model, sizes the battery, plans the grid application and drafts the landowner offer, starting from the work already there.
Ask the next question in the same project
Noda builds on the work already there: the site, the screening and every source behind it. In the example, the screening left a 24 to 36 MW option, so the next question was about money.
Three sizes done. Now the sensitivities that matter — the CfD strike is the biggest driver.
30 MW screening financial model: assumptions, offtake-price breakevens, sizes, annual and quarterly cash flows
NPV and IRR against offtake price, with the CfD clearing range marked
offtake_price_chart.pngimagesWorkspaceDone — the workbook is in your workspace, six sheets, and the price chart alongside it.
The offtake price is the whole answer
The model is at 30 MW (5 × 6 MW), the headline of the recommended 24–36 MW band, on the report's own assumptions. NPV is exactly linear in the contract price against a fixed cost base, so these breakevens are solved, not eyeballed:
| What you need | Price |
|---|---|
| Break even on NPV | €41.90 /MWh |
| 8% IRR | €47.48 /MWh |
| 10% IRR | €58.26 /MWh |
| 12% IRR | €68.69 /MWh |
| Break even with no post-contract revenue | €61.46 /MWh |
| Levelised cost of energy at 7% | €47.06 /MWh |
At the base case of €75/MWh the project returns €20.95m NPV, 13.2% IRR, payback 2039-Q2.
Why that matters
Romania's third CfD round cleared wind at €59.95–74.90/MWh. Laying that band across this model, the site returns roughly 10.3% to 13.2% IRR — which is to say the auction price range brackets your return pretty tightly. If you win at the bottom of the range you're at a 10% project; at the top you're at 13%.
For context on the two instruments, since they're easy to conflate: a CfD is the state auction — a 15-year two-way strike administered through Transelectrica, which is what the €59.95–74.90 figures are. A PPA is a private contract with an offtaker. This model's "offtake price" works for either; the breakeven table above applies to whichever you sign.
The assumption I'd attack first
The model assumes €70/MWh flat merchant power for ten years after the CfD ends. That single line carries €12.4m of the €20.9m NPV — about 60%.
Every input has a source or is marked assumed. The 30% capacity factor is the low end of two wind models, and the closest comparable farm runs at 30.2%. The 2032 start and the 7% discount rate are marked assumed.
The weakest number is named. The workbook flags the EUR 70/MWh power price assumed after the contract ends. It carries EUR 12.4 m of the EUR 20.9 m NPV.
How Noda builds the financial model
Noda starts from the inputs already in the project, runs the cash-flow model as often as the question needs and records each step, failed tries included. The example: the 30 MW workbook and its breakeven prices.
28 steps, 3 minutes
- Start from the screening’s model.Same inputs, rerun at 24, 30 and 36 MW
- Set aside: Four price runs set aside.You asked for the price too.
- Run 30 MW at seven offtake prices.EUR 40 to 80/MWh; NPV moves in a straight line
- Solve the price for each return target.Plus a case with no sales after the contract
- Dead end: First go at the workbook.Code error. Wrote it again.
- Write the summary sheet.The result and the price for each return
- List every input with its source.18 inputs; the weakest one is flagged
- Dead end: Six sheets in one pass.A cell format was missing.
- Fix it and write all six sheets.Summary, inputs, prices, sizes, cash flows
- Read it back and draw the price chart.128 quarters; the NPV matches the run
- Put the workbook in your project.With the price chart beside it
Result. Break even on NPV at EUR 41.90/MWh; a 10% IRR needs EUR 58.26/MWh. At the EUR 75 base case, NPV EUR 20.9 m and IRR 13.2%. 30 MW at seven offtake prices, on the screening’s inputs, 1 Oct 2026.
A workbook your team can check
Ask for a cleaner version and Noda adds a dashboard and saves it as a new version, with every number kept.
The project
| Installed capacity | 30.0 MW (5 x 6.0 MW, 170 m rotor, 200 m tip) |
|---|---|
| Commercial operation | 2032-06-30 |
| Operating life | 25 years |
| Energy yield | 78,840 MWh/yr at a 30% capacity factor |
| Total capex | EUR 39.0 m (EUR 1.3 m/MW all in) |
| Offtake, first 15 years | EUR 75/MWh = EUR 5.913 m per year |
For comparison
| CfD round 3 (Oct 2025) wind clearing | EUR 59.95 - 74.90 /MWh |
|---|---|
| implied IRR on this model | about 10.3% to 13.2% |
| Merchant price assumed after the CfD | EUR 70/MWh flat to retirement |
| NPV that one assumption carries | EUR 12.4 m of the EUR 20.9 m total |
The offtake price you need
| Hurdle | EUR / MWh | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Break even on NPV | 41.90 | Below this the project destroys value |
| 8% IRR | 47.48 | A floor a cautious lender would accept |
| 10% IRR | 58.26 | Typical hurdle for this kind of project |
| 12% IRR | 68.69 | Good. Needs clearing near the top of the auction |
| Break even with no post-contract revenue | 61.46 | If the merchant tail turns out to be worth nothing |
| Levelised cost of energy at 7% | 47.06 | Cost per MWh over 25 years |
Use cases for development
Each one opens Noda with a first message you can change before you send it.
- Estimate the solar yield of a siteAnnual solar output, with the losses stated
- Size a battery for my projectPower and energy sizes for your use and grid limits
- Plan the grid connection applicationThe application route, its documents and its dates
- Draft a landowner offerA draft option or lease offer with the open points
Questions about development
Something else? Write to hello@noda.energy.
Yes, at screening level. In the recorded run, Noda reused the screening report's own assumptions and built a 30 MW wind model in Excel: three sizes, a sweep of the offtake price from 40 to 80 EUR/MWh, the breakeven prices and the cash flow by quarter. Every input sits on one sheet with its source. Debt and tax were left out, and Noda said so, because a lender will ask for both.
Yes, as a first estimate. For solar, Noda estimates annual output from the location, the system design and stated losses. For wind, it states the wind source and the capacity factor it uses. A bankable energy yield assessment comes later, from a specialist with site measurements.
Tell it what the battery is for: move solar output to the evening, cut peak import or back up a site. Noda compares power in MW and usable energy in MWh across sensible sizes, with losses, cycles and grid limits stated. It asks for a load or generation profile and for prices before it says anything about returns.
It plans it. Noda confirms which operator and route apply to your project, then lists the documents, fees, studies and deadlines from the operator's current sources, in order. You submit the application and talk to the operator, with the checklist in hand.
Yes. The map, the sites, the report, the model and the conversation stay in one project, so the next question starts from what is already there. In the recorded run, the financial model started from the cash-flow assumptions the screening report had used.
What should Noda work on next?
Ask in your own words. You can attach a PDF, KML, GeoJSON, CSV or Excel file.
Have an account? Log in